Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1?
Closes April 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$26K
Liquidity
$24K
Bid / Ask
89% / 90%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
86%
Bayesian YES estimate
Event Distribution
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1?
April
10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
92% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
84% YES — lowest in period
Mar 30, 2026
Current
86% YES (+2.5pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1?" at 90% YES / 10% NO. In the last 24 hours, $26K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 86%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 90%, NO 10%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717481
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.