ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3?
Share on X

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

97%YES
3%NO

Volume 24h

$29K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

97% / 98%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.6pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3?" at 97% YES / 3% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 97%, NO 3%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1743634

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+2.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

94% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Current

97% YES (+3.6pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 97%99%
Buy YES@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 3¢
Edge

+17.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO+17.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this