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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

27%YES
74%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

26% / 27%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-19.0pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 3?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1743639

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

19% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: +13.0pp

17% → 30%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

30% YES (+13.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 27%99%
Buy YES@ 27¢
Edge

+1.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 74¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this