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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?
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Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$97K

Liquidity

$36K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.50pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will XRP reach $2.80 in March?

March

Full event →
$70,000 March 30-April 5?
39%
$72,000 March 30-April 5?
17%
$74,000 March 30-April 5?
7%
$78,000 March 30-April 5?
3%
$76,000 March 30-April 5?
2%
$80,000 March 30-April 5?
2%
$69,000 on March 30?
2%
$82,000 March 30-April 5?
1%
$70,000 on March 30?
1%
$71,000 on March 30?
0%
$100 in March?
0%
$1.80 in March?
0%
$2.20 in March?
0%
$80,000 in March?
0%
$120 in March?
0%
$110 in March?
0%
$90,000 in March?
0%
$85,000 in March?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
$2.80 in March?
0%
$2.00 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$95,000 in March?
0%
$130 in March?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
$160 in March?
0%
$75,000 on March 30?
0%
$72,000 on March 30?
0%
$73,000 on March 30?
0%
$74,000 on March 30?
0%
above $80,000 on March 31?
0%
$3.20 in March?
0%
$140 in March?
0%
$150 in March?
0%
$2.60 in March?
0%
$3.00 in March?
0%

37 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

3% YES (-3.1pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-14.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly14.9%
½ Kelly7.4%
Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 14.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $97K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786320

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.