ForecastMind
Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?
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Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$14K

Liquidity

$38K

Bid / Ask

5% / 8%

Spread

2.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.8pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786325

Outcome Markets13 markets

This event has 13 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 16%, Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 11%, Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~59%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-64.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

67% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Apr 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

27%

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: -38.5pp

67% → 28%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.8pp recent)

Apr 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%
½ Kelly8.3%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this