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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$28K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

2% / 4%

Spread

2.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+29.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March?

March

Full event →
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 30?
100%
above $60,000 on March 31?
100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?
89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?
54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 30?
47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?
30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?
17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 30?
9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?
9%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?
6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5?
5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?
4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5?
4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 30?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
2%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March?
2%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on March 30?
1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on March 30?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on March 30?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March?
0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March?
0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March?
0%

38 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.8pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+9.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786341

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.