Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?
Closes April 6, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$102K
Liquidity
$41K
Bid / Ask
15% / 17%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $102K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786335
This event has 13 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?: 14%, Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 11%, Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~60%.
Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
46% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
16% YES — lowest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 30, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: +25.0pp
18% → 43%
Apr 2, 2026
Peak probability
61% YES — highest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Current
16% YES (-1.5pp recent)
Apr 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this