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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on April 1?
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Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on April 1?

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on April 1?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813908

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 60%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 42%, price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 12%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%
½ Kelly8.3%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this