Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?
Closes April 2, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$84K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
1.10pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $84K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813909
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 67%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 50%, price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 16%.
Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
29% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Trough probability
4% YES — lowest in period
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -22.0pp
32% → 10%
Apr 1, 2026
Peak probability
37% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
5% YES (+1.3pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this