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Markets/Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?
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Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?

Closes May 1, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
33%FIS
+1ppvs market 32%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +1.1pp above current market price; market at 32% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.4% ↑, ETH +1.4% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.4% ↑, ETH +1.4% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑
+1.1pp
Live compute09:09 AM

Polymarket Price

32%YES
69%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$78K

Bid / Ask

31% / 32%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

32%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823800

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?: 70%, Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?: 32%, Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?: 13%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-27.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

59% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 4, 2026

Biggest move: -9.0pp

45% → 36%

Apr 6, 2026

Current

32% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 32%99%
Buy YES@ 32¢
Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 69¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this