Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?
Closes May 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$21K
Liquidity
$83K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823803
This event has 9 active outcome markets. Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?: 90%, Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?: 49%, Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?: 19%.
Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
46% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Trough probability
4% YES — lowest in period
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -41.0pp
46% → 5%
Apr 2, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.4pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this