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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 2?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 2?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

59%YES
42%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

11% / 12%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 2?" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 2?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823958

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-28.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

40% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: -27.5pp

40% → 12%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

12% YES (-27.5pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 59%99%
Buy YES@ 59¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.2%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 42¢

-1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this