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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 2?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 2?

Closes April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$31K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

1.70pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 2?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 2?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823959

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-16.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: -10.0pp

14% → 4%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-18.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly18.4%
½ Kelly9.2%
Buy NO+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 18.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this