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Markets/Will Donald Trump announce Ted Cruz as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
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Will Donald Trump announce Ted Cruz as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$258

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

0% / 6%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump announce Ted Cruz as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $258 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Donald Trump announce Ted Cruz as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1832603

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-6.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly6.3%
½ Kelly3.1%
Buy NO+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 6.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this