ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 10?
Share on X

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 10?

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

0% / 2%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+90.5pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 10?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 10?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1846024

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.1pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this