Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12?
Closed April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.1% ↓, ETH -0.1% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$191K
Liquidity
$34K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $191K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879424
This event has 26 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 12: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 12: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: -25.2pp
28% → 3%
Apr 12, 2026
Peak probability
38% YES — highest in period
Apr 11, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this