ForecastMind
Markets/Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

Closes April 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES
83%NO

Volume 24h

$902K

Liquidity

$66K

Bid / Ask

17% / 18%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $902K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1890669

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. there be a run scored in the first inning?: H: 100%, Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5): 62%, Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5): 56%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

40% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Current

37% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢
Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 83¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this