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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13?

Closes April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
42%FIS
6ppvs market 49%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -6.2pp below current market price; market at 48% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -2.9% ↓, ETH -4.1% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -2.9% ↓, ETH -4.1% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-6.2pp
Live compute01:07 PM

Polymarket Price

49%YES
52%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

45% / 49%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

44%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-8.8pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891910

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.5pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 49%99%
Buy YES@ 49¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 52¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this