Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?
Closes April 10, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.9pp above current market price; market at 4% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.9% ↑, VIX +2.3% ↑, Gold +0.6% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$65K
Liquidity
$30K
Bid / Ask
4% / 6%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $65K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1912773
This event has 9 active outcome markets. June 30: 78%, Military action against Iran ends on April 9,: 75%, May 31: 68%.
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 20
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+11.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this