Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
Closes April 21, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.9pp above current market price; market at 22% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.9% ↑, VIX +2.3% ↑, Gold +0.6% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$49K
Liquidity
$40K
Bid / Ask
22% / 23%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
22%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $49K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1918792
This event has 9 active outcome markets. June 30: 78%, Military action against Iran ends on April 9,: 75%, May 31: 68%.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Apr 8, 2026
Trough probability
24% YES — lowest in period
Apr 9, 2026
Biggest move: +10.0pp
40% → 50%
Apr 8, 2026
Current
25% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this