Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.6pp below current market price; market at 84% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -2.4% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$27K
Bid / Ask
84% / 85%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
85%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?" at 85% YES / 15% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 85%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 85%, NO 15%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928796
This event has 20 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 15: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
92% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -7.0pp
89% → 82%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
82% YES (-7.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-3.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this