Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?
Closes April 16, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.6pp below current market price; market at 57% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -0.3% ↓, ETH -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$24K
Bid / Ask
50% / 51%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
57%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 57%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1928798
This event has 37 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
75% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -13.5pp
73% → 59%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
54% YES (-9.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this