Markets/US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Data as of Apr 9, 2026, 04:38 PM UTC

Closes April 22, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

13%FIS

+2ppvs market 12%

underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +1.9pp above current market price; market at 12% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.0% ↑, VIX +2.4% ↑, Gold +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +2.0% ↑, VIX +2.4% ↑, Gold +0.5% ↑

+6.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h10:34 AM

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$156K

Liquidity

$57K

Bid / Ask

10% / 12%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.8pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $156K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919417

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 7: 100%, April 30, 2026: 17%, April 30: 14%.

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

100%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

17%