ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5
Share on X

Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5

Closed April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

32%YES
69%NO

Volume 24h

$9K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

45% / 48%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

32%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937367

Outcome Markets9 markets

This event has 9 active outcome markets. Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5: 78%, Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5: 71%, Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5: 44%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-19.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Trough probability

23% YES — lowest in period

Apr 11, 2026

Biggest move: -17.0pp

49% → 32%

Apr 11, 2026

Current

30% YES (+7.0pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 32%99%
Buy YES@ 32¢
Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 69¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this