ForecastMind
Markets/Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Share on X

Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

4%YES
96%NO
Vol 24h$516
Liquidity$24K
Bid / Ask3% / 4%
Spread0.40pp
ClosesOct 4, 2026

FM Estimate

2%

Market Price

4%
↑ Overpriced 1.5pp
Macro fundamentals-5.0pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's preside: 88%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil': 80%, Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presiden: 7%.

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $516 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601921