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Markets/Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
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Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

7%YES
93%NO
Vol 24h$7K
Liquidity$19K
Bid / Ask7% / 7%
Spread0.20pp
ClosesOct 4, 2026

FM Estimate

5%

Market Price

7%
↑ Overpriced 2.0pp
Macro fundamentals-3.3pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's preside: 88%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil': 80%, Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presiden: 7%.

Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runo
88%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presiden
80%

Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runof

7%
Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential r
4%
Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
3%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-1.3pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601924