ForecastMind
Markets/EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Share on X

EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

63%YES
38%NO

Volume 24h

$27K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

61% / 64%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

63%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

67% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Trough probability

50% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: -24.0pp

77% → 53%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

79% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

62% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 63%99%
Buy YES@ 63¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%
½ Kelly0.7%
Buy NO@ 38¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1592407