EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$27K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
61% / 64%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
63%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
67% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Trough probability
50% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: -24.0pp
77% → 53%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
79% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
62% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1592407
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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