ForecastMind
Markets/Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

Closes April 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES
64%NO

Volume 24h

$829K

Liquidity

$434K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+37.9pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $829K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1890669

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. there be a run scored in the first inning?: H: 100%, Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5: 100%, Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5): 98%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-39.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

40% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -20.0pp

37% → 17%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 13, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 37%99%
Buy YES@ 37¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 64¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this