Markets/ Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 05:52 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

25%FIS

−1ppvs market 26%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.0pp below current market price; market at 26% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroOil +0.1% ↑, VIX -1.0% ↓, Gold -0.1% ↓

-1.1pp

Live compute11:45 AM

Polymarket Price

31%YES

69%NO

Volume 24h

$28K

Liquidity

$34K

Bid / Ask

25% / 26%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370652

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. June 30: 31%, April 30, 2026: 13%, April 30: 11%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~45%.