Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 39% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$26K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
38% / 40%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
39%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $26K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731346
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 39%, June 30, 2026: 24%, April 30, 2026: 9%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~22%.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by
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Backtest Strategy
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