Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$85K
Liquidity
$48K
Bid / Ask
19% / 20%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
20%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
18% YES — lowest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
46%
Mar 13, 2026
Biggest move: -25.0pp
51% → 26%
Mar 13, 2026
Peak probability
51% YES — highest in period
Mar 12, 2026
Current
19% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $85K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1567746
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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