Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$71K
Liquidity
$31K
Bid / Ask
36% / 37%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
37%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
43% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
32% YES — lowest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
54%
Mar 12, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
46%
Mar 13, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 15, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: -19.0pp
58% → 39%
Mar 13, 2026
Peak probability
59% YES — highest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Current
36% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $71K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1567747
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