Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Closes April 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
18% / 21%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
20%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
19% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Current
20% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706766
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Correlated Markets
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