JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
98% / 100%
Spread
1.40pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937572
This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30: 99%, April 15: 98%, April 13: 98%.
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
88% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Biggest move: +10.4pp
88% → 99%
Apr 10, 2026
Peak probability
99% YES — highest in period
Apr 10, 2026
Current
97% YES (-2.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
+9.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this