Markets/JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?

Data as of Apr 11, 2026, 05:20 AM UTC

Closes April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

95%FIS

−2ppvs market 97%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.3pp below current market price; market at 97% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.6% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.6% ↓

-4.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute04:05 AM

Polymarket Price

97%YES

3%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

96% / 97%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

97%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?" at 97% YES / 3% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 97%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 97%, NO 3%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937573

Outcome Markets11 markets

This event has 11 active outcome markets. April 30: 99%, April 30, 2026: 98%, April 15: 97%.

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

99%