JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14?
Closes April 14, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
98% / 99%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14?" at 97% YES / 3% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 14, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 97%, NO 3%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937574
This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30: 99%, April 15: 98%, April 13: 98%.
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
96% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Current
97% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-13.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this