JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
98% / 99%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937593
This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30: 99%, April 13: 98%, April 15: 98%.
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
94% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Current
98% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this