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Markets/Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?
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Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?

Market Price

89%YES
11%NO

FM Estimate

88%
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$7K
Bid / Ask89% / 89%
Spread0.40pp
ClosesMay 16, 2026
Macro fundamentals-0.9pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets8 markets

8 deadline markets. Combined YES = 429% — 329pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by May 31, 2026

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026

100%
by June 30, 2026

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026

99%

by May 16, 2026

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026

89%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+3.6pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 86%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on May 16, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2099881