ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)
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Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

50%YES
51%NO

Volume 24h

$222K

Liquidity

$181K

Bid / Ask

49% / 50%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $222K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1885790

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5): 53%, 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5): 52%, Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5): 50%.

Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
53%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
52%

Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)

50%
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)
46%
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)
42%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

46% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Current

49% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 50%99%
Buy YES@ 50¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 51¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this