Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Closes April 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
33% / 35%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
34%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026?
April
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
32% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Current
34% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706482
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