Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Closes May 31, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
59% / 62%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
60%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1895140
This event has 6 active outcome markets. June 30: 71%, May 31: 61%, April 30: 33%.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
62% YES
Apr 7, 2026
Current
60% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this