Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?
Closes April 18, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 22% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +0.6% ↑, VIX +2.1% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
22% / 23%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
23%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 18, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1912776
This event has 4 active outcome markets. April 21, 2026: 28%, April 18, 2026: 23%, April 14, 2026: 18%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~20%.
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 20
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
22% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Current
23% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 9, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this