Markets/US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 04:34 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

36%FIS

−1ppvs market 37%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -0.9pp below current market price; market at 36% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

MacroVIX -1.3% ↓, Gold +0.7% ↑

-0.7pp

Live compute04:34 AM

Polymarket Price

37%YES

64%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$32K

Bid / Ask

36% / 37%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.8pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/957019

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?: 51%, June 30: 37%, April 30: 14%.