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Markets/US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

41%YES
59%NO
Vol 24h$5K
Liquidity$45K
Bid / Ask38% / 40%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026

FM Estimate

37%

Market Price

39%
↑ Overpriced 2.5pp
Macro fundamentals-4.7pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31: 41%, May 31: 30%, April 30: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~26%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-3.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-17). "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2006983