US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$326K
Liquidity
$72K
Bid / Ask
22% / 23%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
24%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
37% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
17% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +7.0pp
17% → 24%
Mar 21, 2026
Current
24% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $326K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1569627
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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