Markets/US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Data as of Apr 7, 2026, 07:29 AM UTC

Closes April 10, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

16%FIS

+1ppvs market 15%

underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.7pp above current market price; market at 15% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +0.5% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.8% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +0.5% ↑, VIX +1.1% ↑, Gold +0.8% ↑

+3.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h04:55 AM

Polymarket Price

7%YES

93%NO

Volume 24h

$53K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

7% / 8%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1749121

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 9%, April 30, 2026: 8%, April 10, 2026: 7%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~75%.