Markets/US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?

Data as of Apr 10, 2026, 08:03 PM UTC

Closes April 11, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

93%FIS

−1ppvs market 94%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.3pp below current market price; market at 94% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.5% ↓, VIX +0.6% ↑, Gold -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -1.5% ↓, VIX +0.6% ↑, Gold -0.1% ↓

-1.8pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute08:03 PM

Polymarket Price

94%YES

6%NO

Volume 24h

$51K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

90% / 93%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

94%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $51K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937462

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30: 99%, April 30, 2026: 98%, April 15: 95%.

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

99%