Markets/US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?

US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?

Data as of Apr 11, 2026, 08:56 AM UTC

Closes June 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

93%FIS

−1ppvs market 94%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.3pp below current market price; market at 94% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil +0.3% ↑, VIX -18.3% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil +0.3% ↑, VIX -18.3% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑

-1.8pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute06:49 AM

Polymarket Price

100%YES

1%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

93% / 95%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

94%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 94%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1911753

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. June 15, 2026: 100%, June 30, 2026: 95%, May 31, 2026: 93%.