Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?
Closed April 11, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6.0M
Liquidity
$80K
Bid / Ask
53% / 54%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
56%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6.0M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1770233
This event has 10 active outcome markets. FC Barcelona: 72%, Arsenal FC: 56%, Torino FC: 49%.
Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
68% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
38%
Apr 11, 2026
Biggest move: -29.0pp
67% → 38%
Apr 11, 2026
Current
38% YES (-29.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this