Markets/Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

$83K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

10% / 10%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

2027

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-4.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

10% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 90¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $83K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485215